The infographics below are derived from data contained in
BMC's DrinkTell™ Database with Market Forecasts
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| GROWTH RATES MATTER |
| Using DrinkTell™ quarterly data for 2016, we just took a dip into a couple areas that have generated a lot of discussion among market analysts. One has been the connection, if any, between the growth of craft beer and that of cider. (We threw in FMBs here, too) The other is the slowdown of vodka as it relates to the surge of whiskey. (We looked just at Straight American Whiskey here.) Admittedly, the future may be shrouded in impenetrable mist but we're not talking about the inflation and deflation of the stock market here but considering a path of data clues that we can tie to a broader context. |
YOY% Growth Rates
*Fourth quater data is not yet available |
| Quarter-to-quarter straight American whiskey grew at about two and a half times vodka's growth. Craft beer continued a strong growth pattern but cider, which many had tied to the advance of craft beer, appeared to have fallen off a cliff. FMBs, of course, are enjoying the time of their life. It's more difficult to see this picture if you just look at liquid volume (volume chart below) —basically because you have to look back at least a year of more of quarters to see shifts. |
Volume in Gallons
*Fourth quater data is not yet available |
Growth rates alone, however, can fuel and provide factual backup for the analytical discussion of whether the cider phenomenon has run into a wall—too many ciders, too small a share of stomach; or a retreat from flavors, which is a tagline to many craft beer as well as vodka discussions; or, perhaps, too many brands without a clearly defined reason.
An equally intriguing challenge for marketers is a relatively suddenly flat vodka market versus a surging whiskey one. There's a long long way to go before there's any reversal of share of volume—but equally intriguing is the degree to which taste preferences may be changing. How much vodka growth was fueled just by its relatively cheap production costs, how much by the last gasp efforts at flavor extensions? Comparative growth rates will eventually give us the answer. |
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