Data undisputedly tells us what "the trends" are. At the same time the numbers can flash caution. A recent dive into our DrinkTell™ database reminds us to read carefully and be selective in evaluating opportunities.
We're thinking of the lure of piling on just as a trend has peaked. It's strong. Last fall an eye-catching headline in Forbes heralded the formation of a "first of its kind" ETF. (An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund, a marketable security that tracks an index; unlike mutual funds ETFs trade through the day like common stock.) The ETF in question covers publicly traded companies that produce whiskey or other spirits.
Minimum market capitalization of the participants (who are global) is $100 million and complications such as the fact that some major distillers also produce wine and/or beer are resolved by weighting - a lower weight for those with a lesser concentration on their spirits portfolios. The aim, though, is the allure of betting on obvious trends - premium spirits, American whiskies, certain high growth exports (from their home markets) such as Irish Whiskey and Single Malt Scotch, etc.
Enthusiasm for changes to creaky old laws like those preventing Sunday sales or direct sales of craft spirits helps drive a rosy picture. Which is not to say that the picture isn't rosy - only that it may be complicated. Which takes us back to DrinkTell™.